Election predictions

Having just read Iain Dale’s blog post on his predictions, I thought it would be fun to do the same and compare afterwards. I don’t put dates on blog posts, so for the record, it’s 30 June 2024, a few days before the election on 4 July.

I’ll follow the same format as Iain and put my marker down for those 10 topics.

  • Labour majority will be between 110 and 150.
  • Conservatives will get less than 100 seats.
  • Lib Dems will get 60-80 seats.
  • Greens will win 3.
  • SNP will get 20 to 30 seats.
  • Nigel Farage will win Clacton.
  • Turnout will be 67-69%.
  • Rishi Sunak will resign on Friday, having lost his seat.
  • Biggest post election talking point will be the imbalance of FPTP, with the focus being liberals on a lower vote share than Reform but with 10x the seats.
  • Keir Starmer will create two new departments, one for Energy and Environment and the other for Business Growth.

What are your predictions?

If you want to join in the fun, you’ve got a few days left to lock them in on your blog. Send me the link on [email protected] and I’ll add to a list below.

I’ll do a post election blog post on the predictions and announce who is the next John Curtice!

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