Re: Election predictions

A few days before the 2024 UK general election, I wrote a prediction post for some fun, so this post reviews how I got on.

They were organised into ten areas:

  • Labour majority will be between 110 and 150.
    • It ended up at 172. At the upper end of predictions, and less than Tony Blair in 1997. Clearly a landslide, but 600,000 less people voted Labour than in 2019, and over 1m less than 2017.
  • Conservatives will get less than 100 seats.
    • They got 121. Lowest ever I think.
  • Lib Dems will get 60-80 seats.
    • 72. Bang in the middle of the range.
  • Greens will win 3.
    • Yay! They got 4.
  • SNP will get 20 to 30 seats.
    • Collapsed to 9. This was the big shock of the night and contributed to a Labour win in Scotland.
  • Nigel Farage will win Clacton.
    • Yes. He did.
  • Turnout will be 67-69%.
    • It was 60%. Surprisingly low given the opportunity for change. I don’t know who stayed away. Tories probably.
  • Rishi Sunak will resign on Friday, having lost his seat.
    • He did resign sort of. He will stay on for a bit. He didn’t lose his sit but he probably wishes he had so he could just go. Bonus prediction: He’ll resign his seat before the end of 2024.
  • Biggest post election talking point will be the imbalance of FPTP, with the focus being liberals on a lower vote share than Reform but with 10x the seats.
    • I think I’ll take this as a win. The focus has been on Labour landslide with only 1% increase of vote share. But lib dems did get lower vote share than reform with 15x the seats. We won’t get PR before the next election, but I think we’re on a path that ends there.
  • Keir Starmer will create two new departments, one for Energy and Environment and the other for Business Growth.
    • He didn’t create any new departments, but did do two surprise appointments of Ministers in Patrick Vallence and James Timson

So four in ten of the predictions came in. I don’t think I’m going to be the next John Curtice, but I’m very happy with the result as a whole.

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